Concept and background
Campbell (1960) proposed surge and decline: in presidential years heightened interest draws peripheral voters to the polls and the winning presidential party gains seats, then loses them at the midterm when those voters stay home. The coattail effect refers to this spillover of choices for the top candidate into down-ballot choices.
Measurement and historical change
Calvert and Ferejohn (1983) used individual-level survey data to estimate how evaluations of presidential candidates affect House voting, showing that coattail voting is real. Ferejohn and Calvert (1984) found with long-run data that the effect weakened after the mid-twentieth century, a decline attributed to growing incumbency advantage and the personal vote, which freed legislators from presidential popularity. Campbell (1986) showed coattails and midterm losses in state legislative elections as well.
A comparative perspective
Shugart and Carey (1992) argued that holding presidential and legislative elections on the same day makes legislative contests follow the two-way presidential race and reduces the number of parties. Using data from many presidential democracies, Golder (2006) confirmed that coattails reduce legislative fragmentation when presidential races are competitive and concurrent. Jacobson (2004) noted that with more split-ticket voting in the US the size of the effect varies from election to election.
FAQ
- What is the coattail effect in simple terms?
- Thanks to a popular presidential candidate, the same party's legislative and local candidates also get more votes.
- Is the coattail effect still strong today?
- In the US it weakened after the mid-twentieth century as incumbency advantage and personal followings grew, but in many countries with concurrent elections it still shapes party systems.
Sources reviewed: 2026-10-26
References
- Campbell, A. (1960). Surge and decline: A study of electoral change. Public Opinion Quarterly, 24(3), 397–418. Surge and decline.
- Calvert, R. L., & Ferejohn, J. A. (1983). Coattail voting in recent presidential elections. American Political Science Review, 77(2), 407–419. Measuring coattail voting.
- Ferejohn, J. A., & Calvert, R. L. (1984). Presidential coattails in historical perspective. American Journal of Political Science, 28(1), 127–146. Historical decline of coattails.
- Campbell, J. E. (1986). Presidential coattails and midterm losses in state legislative elections. American Political Science Review, 80(1), 45–63. State legislative coattails.
- Shugart, M. S., & Carey, J. M. (1992). Presidents and assemblies: Constitutional design and electoral dynamics. Cambridge University Press. Election timing and party systems.
- Golder, M. (2006). Presidential coattails and legislative fragmentation. American Journal of Political Science, 50(1), 34–48. Coattails reduce fragmentation.
- Jacobson, G. C. (2004). The politics of congressional elections (6th ed.). Pearson Longman. Standard text on congressional elections.