Expected income
Todaro (1969) and Harris and Todaro (1970): migration continues until expected urban income equals rural income.
Versus the dual economy
Unlike the Lewis model (1954), fixed urban wages create unemployment; the Todaro paradox follows.
Extensions and critiques
Fields (1975), Zylberberg (1985); the new economics of labour migration (Stark & Bloom, 1985) and dual labour markets.
FAQ
- What is it in simple terms?
- People move to cities betting on a chance of high pay.
- What is the Todaro paradox?
- Creating urban jobs can raise unemployment by attracting migrants.
Sources reviewed: 2026-10-26
References
- Todaro, M. P. (1969). A model of labor migration and urban unemployment in less developed countries. American Economic Review, 59(1), 138–148. The first model of migration driven by expected income.
- Harris, J. R., & Todaro, M. P. (1970). Migration, unemployment and development: A two-sector analysis. American Economic Review, 60(1), 126–142. The canonical two-sector model and its policy conclusions.
- Lewis, W. A. (1954). Economic development with unlimited supplies of labour. The Manchester School, 22(2), 139–191. The dual-economy classic that Harris–Todaro revised.
- Fields, G. S. (1975). Rural-urban migration, urban unemployment and underemployment, and job-search activity in LDCs. Journal of Development Economics, 2(2), 165–187. Extends the model with the informal sector and job search.
- Zylberberg, A. (1985). Migration equilibrium with price rigidity: The Harris and Todaro model revisited. Journal of Economic Theory, 37(2), 281–309. A theoretical re-examination of equilibrium under price rigidity.
- Stark, O., & Bloom, D. E. (1985). The new economics of labor migration. American Economic Review, 75(2), 173–178. An alternative explaining migration as a household strategy.
- Todaro, M. P., & Smith, S. C. (2020). Economic development (13th ed.). Pearson. A textbook treatment for introductory study.