What is it in simple terms?

A chart of who gained most from globalization, shaped like an elephant.

Did rich-world workers lose?

Their gains were small, though critics say the dip is overstated.

Elephant Curve

📈 Economics By CampusDown Wiki Editorial Team Last updated October 27, 2026

The elephant curve is Lakner and Milanovic's chart of real income growth across the global income distribution, whose elephant-like shape became an emblem of globalization's winners and losers.

Contents

1. The shape
2. Winners and losers
3. Critiques
4. FAQ
5. References

The shape

Lakner and Milanovic (2016) found strong growth in the global middle, stagnation near the 80th percentile and a surge for the top 1%.

Winners and losers

Milanovic (2016) links this to globalization, a global extension of the Kuznets curve; Hacker and Pierson (2010) stress politics; see the trilemma.

Critiques

Corlett (2016) and Kharas and Seidel (2018) show composition effects and data updates weaken the shape; compare the Gini.

FAQ

What is it in simple terms?: A chart of who gained most from globalization, shaped like an elephant.
Did rich-world workers lose?: Their gains were small, though critics say the dip is overstated.

Sources reviewed: 2026-10-26

References

Lakner, C., & Milanovic, B. (2016). Global income distribution: From the fall of the Berlin Wall to the Great Recession. World Bank Economic Review, 30(2), 203–232. The original paper presenting the curve, with data and methods.
Milanovic, B. (2016). Global inequality: A new approach for the age of globalization. Harvard University Press. A book-length interpretation of globalization and inequality built on the curve.
Milanovic, B. (2009). Global inequality recalculated: The effect of new 2005 PPP estimates on global inequality (Policy Research Working Paper No. 5061). World Bank. Shows how PPP revisions change global inequality estimates.
Corlett, A. (2016). Examining an elephant: Globalisation and the lower middle class of the rich world. Resolution Foundation. Re-examines how changing country composition shapes the curve, a key critique.
Kharas, H., & Seidel, B. (2018). What's happening to the world income distribution? The elephant chart revisited (Global Economy & Development Working Paper 114). Brookings Institution. Redraws the chart with updated data, showing sensitivity of results.
Kuznets, S. (1955). Economic growth and income inequality. American Economic Review, 45(1), 1–28. The classic on growth and inequality, for comparison with within-country theory.
Hacker, J. S., & Pierson, P. (2010). Winner-take-all politics: Public policy, political organization, and the precipitous rise of top incomes in the United States. Politics & Society, 38(2), 152–204. Explains the surge in top incomes, the curve's trunk, through politics.

Reports and materials that use this theory (Korean)

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Kuznets curveWhat the Kuznets curve is, Simon Kuznets’ 1955 inverted-U hypothesis linking growth and income inequality, the explanation via industrialisation, the environmental Kuznets curve and criticisms including Piketty’s.📈 Economics Globalization TrilemmaWhat the globalization trilemma is: Rodrik's claim that hyperglobalization, the nation state and democratic politics cannot all coexist. The three options, Bretton Woods, the monetary trilemma and critiques.🏛️ Politics & Public Administration Gini coefficientWhat the Gini coefficient measures, how it is derived from the Lorenz curve, how to interpret values from 0 to 1, market vs disposable income Gini, and complementary measures such as the quintile share ratio and Palma ratio.📈 Economics Sunk Cost and the Sunk Cost FallacySunk cost explained: why unrecoverable past costs should not affect decisions, the sunk cost (Concorde) fallacy, Arkes and Blumer's experiment, escalation of commitment, and how to avoid it in investing and career choices.📈 Economics

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This article was last updated on October 27, 2026. It is based on widely recognized original works and textbooks; when citing it in a paper, please check the original sources listed in the references.