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Hindsight bias

🧠 Psychology By CampusDown Wiki Editorial Team Last updated
Hindsight bias is the tendency, after learning an outcome, to see it as having been more predictable than it was: the “I knew it all along” effect.
Contents
  1. 1. Overview
  2. 2. Frequently asked questions
  3. 3. References

Overview

Fischhoff (1975) showed that people told an outcome judged it far more likely. Roese and Vohs (2012) describe three levels: memory distortion, inevitability and foreseeability. It distorts lessons in investing, medicine and law. Record predictions and consider alternative outcomes. See survivorship bias.

Frequently asked questions

Why is outcome-based judgement unfair?
Good decisions can have bad luck.

References

  1. Fischhoff, B. (1975). Hindsight ≠ foresight: The effect of outcome knowledge on judgment under uncertainty. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Perception and Performance, 1(3), 288–299.
  2. Roese, N. J., & Vohs, K. D. (2012). Hindsight bias. Perspectives on Psychological Science, 7(5), 411–426.

Reports and materials that use this theory (Korean)

There are no materials dedicated to this theory yet, but you can search related reports in the CampusDown library (Korean).

Find more reports · Search '사후확신 편향' on CampusDown →
Survivorship biasSurvivorship bias is drawing conclusions from cases that survived a selection process while overlooking those that failed and disappeared.🧠 PsychologyMisinformation and Confirmation BiasWhy false information spreads and why people accept it. Covers mis-, dis- and mal-information, confirmation bias from Wason's task onward, filter bubbles and echo chambers, the continued influence effect, and remedies such as fact-checking and prebunking.🎨 Media, Arts & CultureFundamental attribution errorWhat is the fundamental attribution error? Lee Ross’s 1977 term, Jones and Harris’s 1967 Castro essay experiment, the related correspondence bias, everyday examples, the actor–observer bias, cultural differences, explanations from Gilbert and Malone, and ways to reduce it.🧠 PsychologyMaslow's Hierarchy of NeedsMaslow's hierarchy of needs explained: definition, the five levels, deficiency vs. growth needs, the pyramid myth, empirical criticisms and limitations, report examples for social work, nursing and business, and references.🧠 Psychology

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This article was last updated on October 24, 2026. It is based on widely recognized original works and textbooks; when citing it in a paper, please check the original sources listed in the references.