CampusDownWiki CampusDown ↗
English

Theories of Low Fertility and Demographic Transition

👥 Sociology By CampusDown Wiki Editorial Team Last updated
Quick answer: Low fertility means fertility falling below replacement (about 2.1) after the demographic transition, explained by child costs and opportunity costs, value change, and gender inequality at work and home.
Contents
  1. 1. Demographic transition
  2. 2. Theories
  3. 3. Lowest-low fertility and Korea
  4. 4. Policy
  5. 5. References

Demographic transition

The classic model runs from high birth and death rates, through falling mortality and rapid growth, to falling fertility and low rates of both. It expected fertility to stabilise near replacement, but many countries fell well below it, driving population ageing.

Theories

  • Economic (Becker): rising incomes shift investment from child quantity to quality; higher female wages raise opportunity costs.
  • Easterlin hypothesis: low income prospects relative to parents' living standards delay marriage and births.
  • Second demographic transition (Lesthaeghe, van de Kaa): individualism and self-realisation, cohabitation and later marriage.
  • Gender equity (McDonald): very low fertility when women's equality in education and work outpaces equality in family care.

Lowest-low fertility and Korea

A TFR below 1.3 is "lowest-low". Korea has been there since 2002 and recorded 0.72 in 2023, among the world's lowest, linked to housing and education costs, long hours and concentration in the capital region.

Policy

Research suggests cash alone has limited effect; parental leave, childcare, housing and work reform are emphasised.

References

  1. Notestein, F. W. (1945). Population: The long view. In T. W. Schultz (Ed.), Food for the World (pp. 36-57). University of Chicago Press.
  2. Becker, G. S. (1991). A Treatise on the Family (enlarged ed.). Harvard University Press.
  3. Lesthaeghe, R. (2010). The unfolding story of the second demographic transition. Population and Development Review, 36(2), 211-251.
  4. McDonald, P. (2000). Gender equity in theories of fertility transition. Population and Development Review, 26(3), 427-439.
  5. 통계청 (2024). 「2023년 출생 통계」.

Reports and materials that use this theory (Korean)

There are no materials dedicated to this theory yet, but you can search related reports in the CampusDown library (Korean).

Find more reports · Search '저출산 이론' on CampusDown →
Population Aging and Theories of AgingPopulation aging explained: aging, aged and super-aged society thresholds, the demographic transition, disengagement, activity, continuity and modernization theories, and economic and policy implications.👥 SociologyChicago School Urban EcologyChicago School urban ecology explained: Park, Burgess and McKenzie's human ecology, the concentric zone model and zone in transition, invasion and succession, Wirth's urbanism, Shaw and McKay's social disorganization, later models and criticism.👥 SociologyComplexity TheoryComplexity theory explained: systems of many interacting parts from which hard-to-predict order emerges. Emergence, self-organization, nonlinearity and path dependence, the Santa Fe Institute, Schelling's segregation model, applications in sociology and public administration, and limits.👥 SociologyCrime Prevention Through Environmental Design (CPTED)CPTED explained: roots in Jacobs, Jeffery and Newman's defensible space, five principles (natural surveillance, access control, territoriality, activity support, maintenance), second-generation CPTED, uses and displacement debates.👥 Sociology

You may also like

Brown v. Board of Education (1954)Brown v. Board of Education (1954) summary: the case, Chief Justice Warren's unanimous ruling, why 'separate but equal' fell, and what happened after.⚖️ LawIntestate SuccessionWho inherits when someone dies without a will: how U.S. intestacy statutes rank spouses, children and other relatives, how per stirpes works, and how Korea's Civil Act sets heirs, shares and representation.⚖️ LawThe Rule of LawWhat is the rule of law? Its meaning and history from Magna Carta to United States v. Nixon, Dicey and Fuller's principles, and how it differs from rule by law.⚖️ LawCommon Law vs. Civil LawCommon law vs. civil law: how the two legal families differ on sources of law, precedent, trials and judges, and where Korea's mixed system fits between them.⚖️ Law

This article was last updated on October 15, 2026. It is based on widely recognized original works and textbooks; when citing it in a paper, please check the original sources listed in the references.