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Optimism bias

🧠 Psychology By CampusDown Wiki Editorial Team Last updated
Optimism bias is the unrealistic belief that good events are more likely, and bad events less likely, to happen to oneself than to others.
Contents
  1. 1. Overview
  2. 2. Frequently asked questions
  3. 3. References

Overview

Weinstein (1980) found students rated positive events more likely and negative events less likely for themselves than peers. The related planning fallacy (Kahneman & Tversky, 1979) underestimates time and cost. Optimism aids motivation (Sharot, 2011) but can undercut preparation. Use base rates, buffers and pre-mortems. See normalcy bias.

Frequently asked questions

Should optimism be eliminated?
No; just check risks in key decisions.

References

  1. Weinstein, N. D. (1980). Unrealistic optimism about future life events. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 39(5), 806–820.
  2. Sharot, T. (2011). The optimism bias. Current Biology, 21(23), R941–R945.
  3. Kahneman, D., & Tversky, A. (1979). Intuitive prediction: Biases and corrective procedures. TIMS Studies in Management Science, 12, 313–327.

Reports and materials that use this theory (Korean)

There are no materials dedicated to this theory yet, but you can search related reports in the CampusDown library (Korean).

Find more reports · Search '낙관 편향' on CampusDown →
Normalcy biasNormalcy bias is the tendency to underestimate a threat and delay action because things have always been fine before.🧠 PsychologyDunning-Kruger EffectWhat is the Dunning-Kruger effect? Learn what Kruger and Dunning found in 1999, why the popular "Mount Stupid" curve is not from the study, the statistical criticism, its link to metacognition, and practical ways to calibrate your own confidence.🧠 PsychologyProspect Theory and Loss AversionKahneman and Tversky’s prospect theory explained: reference dependence, the S-shaped value function, loss aversion (losses loom about twice as large), the mug endowment-effect experiment, and examples from investing, shopping and subscriptions.📈 EconomicsMaslow's Hierarchy of NeedsMaslow's hierarchy of needs explained: definition, the five levels, deficiency vs. growth needs, the pyramid myth, empirical criticisms and limitations, report examples for social work, nursing and business, and references.🧠 Psychology

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This article was last updated on October 24, 2026. It is based on widely recognized original works and textbooks; when citing it in a paper, please check the original sources listed in the references.