What is POUM in simple terms?

People who believe they will get richer may oppose taxing the rich now.

Is there evidence for it?

Studies in Russia and the US support it, though effect sizes vary.

Prospect of Upward Mobility Hypothesis

📈 Economics By CampusDown Wiki Editorial Team Last updated October 27, 2026

The prospect of upward mobility (POUM) hypothesis holds that people with below-average income may oppose redistribution if they expect their income to rise, since future taxes would fall on them. Roland Bénabou and Efe Ok formalised it in 2001.

Contents

1. The puzzle
2. Tunnel effect and beliefs
3. Evidence
4. FAQ
5. References

The puzzle

The Meltzer–Richard model predicts more redistribution with more inequality, yet unequal societies do not always demand it. Bénabou and Ok (2001) showed that with a right-skewed distribution many can rationally expect to rise above average.

Tunnel effect and beliefs

Hirschman and Rothschild (1973) described the tunnel effect: when the next lane moves, drivers tolerate waiting. Piketty (1995) modelled beliefs learned from mobility experience, and Fong (2001) linked beliefs about effort to opposition to redistribution.

Evidence

Ravallion and Lokshin (2000) found Russians expecting gains favoured less redistribution, Alesina and La Ferrara (2005) found the same in the US, and Alesina and colleagues (2018) showed information about low mobility raises support. It is discussed with intergenerational mobility, the paradox of redistribution and the relative income hypothesis.

FAQ

What is POUM in simple terms?: People who believe they will get richer may oppose taxing the rich now.
Is there evidence for it?: Studies in Russia and the US support it, though effect sizes vary.

Sources reviewed: 2026-10-26

References

Bénabou, R., & Ok, E. A. (2001). Social mobility and the demand for redistribution: The POUM hypothesis. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 116(2), 447–487. The original formal statement.
Hirschman, A. O., & Rothschild, M. (1973). The changing tolerance for income inequality in the course of economic development. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 87(4), 544–566. The tunnel effect.
Piketty, T. (1995). Social mobility and redistributive politics. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 110(3), 551–584. Mobility experience shapes beliefs.
Ravallion, M., & Lokshin, M. (2000). Who wants to redistribute? The tunnel effect in 1990s Russia. Journal of Public Economics, 76(1), 87–104. Evidence from Russia.
Fong, C. (2001). Social preferences, self-interest, and the demand for redistribution. Journal of Public Economics, 82(2), 225–246. Beliefs about effort matter.
Alesina, A., & La Ferrara, E. (2005). Preferences for redistribution in the land of opportunities. Journal of Public Economics, 89(5–6), 897–931. US evidence.
Alesina, A., Stantcheva, S., & Teso, E. (2018). Intergenerational mobility and preferences for redistribution. American Economic Review, 108(2), 521–554. Experiments on mobility perceptions.

Reports and materials that use this theory (Korean)

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Meltzer-Richard ModelWhat the Meltzer-Richard model is: the theory that greater income inequality leads the median voter to demand more redistribution and larger government. Covers its logic, the Robin Hood paradox and later research.📈 Economics Paradox of RedistributionWhat the paradox of redistribution is: Korpi and Palme's finding that the more benefits are targeted at the poor, the less redistribution and poverty reduction is achieved. Covers its mechanism and later debates.🤝 Social Welfare Intergenerational Income MobilityWhat intergenerational income mobility is: how strongly parents' income predicts children's. Measurement, theory, the Great Gatsby curve and policy implications.📈 Economics Relative Income HypothesisWhat the relative income hypothesis is: Duesenberry's theory that consumption depends on income relative to others and past peaks, demonstration and ratchet effects, the consumption puzzle, happiness research and positional goods.📈 Economics

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This article was last updated on October 27, 2026. It is based on widely recognized original works and textbooks; when citing it in a paper, please check the original sources listed in the references.