Pocketbook vs. sociotropic voting
Economic voting research has shown that economic conditions shape election outcomes. The pathway could take two forms: pocketbook voting, in which people whose income or job prospects worsen punish the incumbent, and sociotropic voting, in which people who judge the national economy to have worsened punish the incumbent regardless of their own situation. Fiorina (1978) reported that personal finances have some effect on voting.
Kinder and Kiewiet's research
Using US congressional election data, Kinder and Kiewiet (1979) showed that personal economic grievances barely predicted voting, while collective judgments about the national economy predicted it strongly. Their 1981 paper named this sociotropic politics. One interpretation is that people attribute personal circumstances to themselves or luck rather than government, but hold government responsible for the national economy. Lewis-Beck (1988) found similar patterns across Western democracies.
Causes and extensions
Mutz (1992) showed that people rely more on media coverage than personal experience in judging the national economy, explaining how sociotropic judgments are formed through media. Lewis-Beck and Stegmaier (2000) reviewed economic voting research and concluded sociotropic effects are generally stronger. Mansfield and Mutz (2009) showed that support for free trade also depends more on national economic judgments than on self-interest, extending the concept to policy attitudes. Critics note that national economic evaluations are themselves colored by partisanship.
FAQ
- What is sociotropic voting in simple terms?
- Rewarding or punishing the governing party based on how the country's economy is doing rather than your own paycheck.
- Why would the national economy matter more?
- People tend to blame themselves or luck for personal circumstances but hold government responsible for the national economy.
Sources reviewed: 2026-10-26
References
- Fiorina, M. P. (1978). Economic retrospective voting in American national elections: A micro-analysis. American Journal of Political Science, 22(2), 426–443. Micro-level test of pocketbook voting.
- Kinder, D. R., & Kiewiet, D. R. (1979). Economic discontent and political behavior: The role of personal grievances and collective economic judgments in congressional voting. American Journal of Political Science, 23(3), 495–527. The original study favoring collective judgments.
- Kinder, D. R., & Kiewiet, D. R. (1981). Sociotropic politics: The American case. British Journal of Political Science, 11(2), 129–161. The paper naming sociotropic politics.
- Lewis-Beck, M. S. (1988). Economics and elections: The major Western democracies. University of Michigan Press. Comparative book on economic voting.
- Mutz, D. C. (1992). Mass media and the depoliticization of personal experience. American Journal of Political Science, 36(2), 483–508. Media shape collective judgments.
- Lewis-Beck, M. S., & Stegmaier, M. (2000). Economic determinants of electoral outcomes. Annual Review of Political Science, 3, 183–219. Review of economic voting research.
- Mansfield, E. D., & Mutz, D. C. (2009). Support for free trade: Self-interest, sociotropic politics, and out-group anxiety. International Organization, 63(3), 425–457. Sociotropic thinking in trade attitudes.