The pattern
Autor, Katz and Kearney (2006) documented growth at both ends of the US wage distribution in the 1990s, Goos and Manning (2007) described 'lousy and lovely jobs' in Britain, and Goos, Manning and Salomons (2014) found the same in 16 European countries.
Task approach
Autor, Levy and Murnane (2003) argued computers substitute for routine, rule-based tasks while complementing abstract tasks and leaving manual service tasks hard to automate. Acemoglu and Autor (2011) formalised the framework, and Autor and Dorn (2013) explained low-skill service growth, refining human capital theory.
Social implications
Autor (2015) stressed that automation also creates work. Still, the hollowing out links to the precariat, insider–outsider theory and dual labour markets.
FAQ
- What is it in simple terms?
- High- and low-wage jobs grow while middle jobs shrink.
- Why do middle jobs shrink?
- Routine clerical and production tasks are easily automated or offshored.
Sources reviewed: 2026-10-26
References
- Autor, D. H., Levy, F., & Murnane, R. J. (2003). The skill content of recent technological change: An empirical exploration. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 118(4), 1279–1333. Introduced the task-based routinisation approach.
- Autor, D. H., Katz, L. F., & Kearney, M. S. (2006). The polarization of the U.S. labor market. American Economic Review, 96(2), 189–194. Documented US polarisation.
- Goos, M., & Manning, A. (2007). Lousy and lovely jobs: The rising polarization of work in Britain. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 89(1), 118–133. Lousy and lovely jobs in Britain.
- Acemoglu, D., & Autor, D. (2011). Skills, tasks and technologies: Implications for employment and earnings. In O. Ashenfelter & D. Card (Eds.), Handbook of labor economics (Vol. 4B, pp. 1043–1171). Elsevier. Formalises the task framework.
- Autor, D. H., & Dorn, D. (2013). The growth of low-skill service jobs and the polarization of the US labor market. American Economic Review, 103(5), 1553–1597. Growth of low-skill service jobs.
- Goos, M., Manning, A., & Salomons, A. (2014). Explaining job polarization: Routine-biased technological change and offshoring. American Economic Review, 104(8), 2509–2526. Evidence across 16 European countries.
- Autor, D. H. (2015). Why are there still so many jobs? The history and future of workplace automation. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 29(3), 3–30. Accessible piece on automation.