The funnel of causality
The American Voter (1960) likened the vote decision to a funnel. Distant factors such as class, region and parents' party sit at the wide mouth; party identification, formed in childhood, lies inside; and short-term evaluations of candidates and issues sit at the narrow end. Party identification was seen as a perceptual screen through which later information is interpreted.
Revisions and alternatives
Fiorina (1981) argued that party identification should be seen as a running tally of retrospective evaluations of government performance. Franklin and Jackson (1983) likewise showed that party identification can move with issue evaluations, fueling a long debate over whether it is a fixed cause or also an effect.
Contemporary legacy
Bartels (2002) revived the Michigan view by showing that partisanship filters even perceptions of objective conditions such as the economy. Green and colleagues (2002) recast party identification as social identity, and Goren (2005) found that it shapes core values rather than the reverse. Lewis-Beck and colleagues (2008) confirmed that the model's basic structure holds in 2000s data.
FAQ
- What is the Michigan model in simple terms?
- People judge candidates and issues, and vote, on the basis of party attachments formed early in life.
- What is the funnel of causality?
- A metaphor for how distant factors like social background narrow through party identification and short-term evaluations down to the vote.
Sources reviewed: 2026-10-26
References
- Campbell, A., Converse, P. E., Miller, W. E., & Stokes, D. E. (1960). The American voter. John Wiley & Sons. The founding book of the Michigan model.
- Lewis-Beck, M. S., Jacoby, W. G., Norpoth, H., & Weisberg, H. F. (2008). The American voter revisited. University of Michigan Press. Replicates the model with 2000s data.
- Franklin, C. H., & Jackson, J. E. (1983). The dynamics of party identification. American Political Science Review, 77(4), 957–973. Shows party ID responds to evaluations.
- Fiorina, M. P. (1981). Retrospective voting in American national elections. Yale University Press. The running-tally alternative to the Michigan view.
- Bartels, L. M. (2002). Beyond the running tally: Partisan bias in political perceptions. Political Behavior, 24(2), 117–150. Partisanship filters perceptions of reality.
- Green, D., Palmquist, B., & Schickler, E. (2002). Partisan hearts and minds: Political parties and the social identities of voters. Yale University Press. Party ID as social identity.
- Goren, P. (2005). Party identification and core political values. American Journal of Political Science, 49(4), 881–896. Party ID shapes core values.