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Critical elections and secular realignment
Key (1955) defined critical elections as contests with intense voter involvement in which the structure of party support shifts sharply and the new pattern persists for several elections. In 1959 he added secular realignment, a gradual shift over many elections. Together these concepts became a framework for how party systems move between stability and change.
Cycles and issues
Burnham (1970) argued that American realignments occur roughly once a generation, citing 1860, 1896 and 1932. Sundquist (1983) explained realignments as arising when new issues cut across existing party lines, a view linked to issue evolution and cleavage theory.
Critiques and modern uses
Mayhew (2000) argued that core claims, such as periodicity and criteria for identifying critical elections, are not supported by the data. Nardulli (1995) found traces of realignment in local data while distancing himself from national cycle theories. Abramowitz and Saunders (1998) reported an ideological realignment in the recent American electorate.
FAQ
- What is realignment theory in simple terms?
- Some elections cause big shifts in which party people support, and the new pattern lasts for a long time.
- Why is it criticized?
- Criteria for critical elections are vague, and the claim that realignments occur in cycles is not well supported by data.
Sources reviewed: 2026-10-26
References
- Key, V. O., Jr. (1955). A theory of critical elections. The Journal of Politics, 17(1), 3–18. The classic that introduced critical elections.
- Key, V. O., Jr. (1959). Secular realignment and the party system. The Journal of Politics, 21(2), 198–210. Adds the idea of gradual (secular) realignment.
- Burnham, W. D. (1970). Critical elections and the mainsprings of American politics. W. W. Norton. Burnham's argument for periodic realignments.
- Sundquist, J. L. (1983). Dynamics of the party system: Alignment and realignment of political parties in the United States (Rev. ed.). Brookings Institution. Issue-driven account of realignment dynamics.
- Nardulli, P. F. (1995). The concept of a critical realignment, electoral behavior, and political change. American Political Science Review, 89(1), 10–22. Re-tests critical realignment with local data.
- Abramowitz, A. I., & Saunders, K. L. (1998). Ideological realignment in the U.S. electorate. The Journal of Politics, 60(3), 634–652. Evidence of ideological realignment.
- Mayhew, D. R. (2000). Electoral realignments. Annual Review of Political Science, 3, 449–474. Systematic critique of the realignment genre.
