Rally-Round-the-Flag Effect

Origins and sociological background

Analyzing Gallup approval data from Truman to Johnson, Mueller (1970, 1973) found that dramatic, specific international events that directly involve the United States and put the president at center stage produce temporary boosts in approval. The outbreak of the Korean War and the Cuban Missile Crisis are classic examples. The sociological roots of the phenomenon lie in the conflict theories of Simmel (English translation 1955) and Coser (1956), which hold that conflict with outsiders strengthens in-group cohesion. Faced with a crisis, citizens unite around national identity and come to see the leader as its symbol.

Why it happens: patriotism or elite consensus?

Brody (1991) argued that rallies stem less from simple patriotism than from elite consensus: opposition politicians and the media hold back criticism early in a crisis, and without critical information voters judge the president favorably. Oneal and Bryan (1995), analyzing foreign policy crises from 1950 to 1985, found that the size of the effect depends on media coverage and bipartisan support, and Baker and Oneal (2001) concluded that it hinges more on opinion leaders' reactions than on patriotism. Baum (2002) showed that rallies come mainly from shifts among opposition partisans and independents. Lambert, Schott and Scherer (2011) outlined the psychological pathway by which threat evokes anxiety and anger that heighten support for authority.

Cases and debates

After the September 11, 2001 attacks, President George W. Bush's approval soared from the 50s to 90 percent, the highest in Gallup's history. Hetherington and Nelson (2003) found the rally unusually large and durable but showed that it gradually eroded. Chowanietz (2011) reported that across democracies, whether opposition parties back or criticize the government after terror attacks determines whether a rally occurs. Schraff (2021) analyzed the rise in political trust in Europe early in the COVID-19 pandemic. Diversionary war theory, which holds that leaders start foreign conflicts to gain domestic support, rests on this effect, but Levy (1989) criticized its mixed empirical support. The topic connects with research on links between domestic politics and foreign policy, such as audience costs.

FAQ

What is the rally-round-the-flag effect in simple terms?

When a country faces a major outside crisis such as a war or terror attack, even people who normally oppose the leader rally behind them, and approval ratings suddenly jump.

How long does a rally last?

Usually it fades within weeks or months. Some rallies, like the one after 9/11, are large and long-lasting, but as criticism returns, approval gradually drifts back to earlier levels.

Sources reviewed: 2026-10-26

References

1. Mueller, J. E. (1970). Presidential popularity from Truman to Johnson. American Political Science Review, 64(1), 18–34.
2. Mueller, J. E. (1973). War, Presidents and Public Opinion. New York: Wiley.
3. Simmel, G. (1955). Conflict and the Web of Group-Affiliations (K. H. Wolff & R. Bendix, Trans.). Glencoe, IL: Free Press.
4. Coser, L. A. (1956). The Functions of Social Conflict. Glencoe, IL: Free Press.
5. Brody, R. A. (1991). Assessing the President: The Media, Elite Opinion, and Public Support. Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press.
6. Oneal, J. R., & Bryan, A. L. (1995). The rally 'round the flag effect in U.S. foreign policy crises, 1950–1985. Political Behavior, 17(4), 379–401.
7. Baum, M. A. (2002). The constituent foundations of the rally-round-the-flag phenomenon. International Studies Quarterly, 46(2), 263–298.
8. Hetherington, M. J., & Nelson, M. (2003). Anatomy of a rally effect: George W. Bush and the war on terrorism. PS: Political Science & Politics, 36(1), 37–42.
9. Chowanietz, C. (2011). Rallying around the flag or railing against the government? Political parties' reactions to terrorist acts. Party Politics, 17(5), 673–698.
10. Levy, J. S. (1989). The diversionary theory of war: A critique. In M. I. Midlarsky (Ed.), Handbook of War Studies (pp. 259–288). Boston: Unwin Hyman.
11. Lambert, A. J., Schott, J. P., & Scherer, L. (2011). Threat, politics, and attitudes: Toward a greater understanding of rally-'round-the-flag effects. Current Directions in Psychological Science, 20(6), 343–348.
12. Baker, W. D., & Oneal, J. R. (2001). Patriotism or opinion leadership? The nature and origins of the "rally 'round the flag" effect. Journal of Conflict Resolution, 45(5), 661–687.
13. Schraff, D. (2021). Political trust during the Covid-19 pandemic: Rally around the flag or lockdown effect? European Journal of Political Research, 60(4), 1007–1017.