Surge and decline
Campbell (1960) argued presidential elections draw peripheral voters toward the winner, lifting co-partisans like a coattail effect; they drop out at midterms. James Campbell (1987) revised the theory.
Referendum and negative voting
Tufte (1978) treated midterms as referendums on the president and the economy, and Kernell (1977) stressed that dissatisfied voters turn out more, a form of retrospective voting.
Balancing and tests
Alesina and Rosenthal (1995) proposed balancing by moderate voters, also explaining divided government. Erikson (1988) favoured presidential penalty and Bafumi and colleagues (2010) found support for balancing.
FAQ
- What is midterm loss in simple terms?
- The president's party tends to lose seats in elections halfway through the term.
- Why does it happen?
- Surge voters leave, discontented voters turn out, and some voters balance the president.
Sources reviewed: 2026-10-26
References
- Campbell, A. (1960). Surge and decline: A study of electoral change. Public Opinion Quarterly, 24(3), 397–418. The original surge-and-decline paper.
- Kernell, S. (1977). Presidential popularity and negative voting: An alternative explanation of the midterm congressional decline of the president's party. American Political Science Review, 71(1), 44–66. Negative voting explanation.
- Campbell, J. E. (1987). The revised theory of surge and decline. American Journal of Political Science, 31(4), 965–979. Revised surge and decline.
- Erikson, R. S. (1988). The puzzle of midterm loss. Journal of Politics, 50(4), 1011–1029. Compares explanations.
- Alesina, A., & Rosenthal, H. (1995). Partisan politics, divided government, and the economy. Cambridge University Press. Balancing theory.
- Bafumi, J., Erikson, R. S., & Wlezien, C. (2010). Balancing, generic polls and midterm congressional elections. Journal of Politics, 72(3), 705–719. Recent test of balancing.
- Tufte, E. R. (1978). Political control of the economy. Princeton University Press. Economy and midterms.