涨落理论
与燕尾效应相关。
公投模型
平衡投票
解释分立政府。
常见问题
- 简单来说？
- 执政党中期失利。
- 为什么？
- 有多种解释。
来源核查日期：2026-10-26
参考文献
- Campbell, A. (1960). Surge and decline: A study of electoral change. Public Opinion Quarterly, 24(3), 397–418. 涨落理论原著。
- Kernell, S. (1977). Presidential popularity and negative voting: An alternative explanation of the midterm congressional decline of the president's party. American Political Science Review, 71(1), 44–66. 负面投票解释。
- Campbell, J. E. (1987). The revised theory of surge and decline. American Journal of Political Science, 31(4), 965–979. 修正理论。
- Erikson, R. S. (1988). The puzzle of midterm loss. Journal of Politics, 50(4), 1011–1029. 比较解释。
- Alesina, A., & Rosenthal, H. (1995). Partisan politics, divided government, and the economy. Cambridge University Press. 平衡投票论。
- Bafumi, J., Erikson, R. S., & Wlezien, C. (2010). Balancing, generic polls and midterm congressional elections. Journal of Politics, 72(3), 705–719. 近期检验。
- Tufte, E. R. (1978). Political control of the economy. Princeton University Press. 经济与中期选举。