Concept and definition
Analyzing presidential approval from Truman to Johnson, Mueller (1970) reported that approval rises temporarily when an international event occurs that directly involves the United States and the president and is specific, dramatic and sharply focused. He called this the rally effect, citing cases such as the Cuban missile crisis. Later research showed that rallies do not occur in every crisis and that their size and duration vary greatly across events.
Explanations
The first explanation is patriotism: under threat, citizens unite around the leader as a symbol of the nation. Lambert et al. (2011) summarized psychological mechanisms in which threat combined with anger increases support for leaders and hawkish policies. The second is Brody's (1991) opinion-leadership account: early in a crisis, opposition elites hold back criticism and media rely on official statements, so citizens receive no dissenting cues and support rises. Baker and Oneal (2001) found results favoring opinion leadership, and Groeling and Baum (2008) showed that the character of elite rhetoric and media coverage shapes rally size.
The 9/11 case and limits
After the September 11, 2001 attacks, President George W. Bush's approval soared to record levels. Schubert et al. (2002) and Hetherington and Nelson (2003) found the rally exceptionally large and longer-lasting than others, but it gradually faded. Baum (2002) showed that rallies come mainly from temporary shifts among opposition partisans and independents. The rally effect connects with debates over the diversionary use of force, the incentive for leaders to exploit crises politically, though empirical evidence on that is mixed.
FAQ
- What is the rally-around-the-flag effect in simple terms?
- When a country faces a major crisis, people temporarily unite around the leader and approval ratings jump.
- Does it last long?
- It usually fades within weeks or months; even the large rally after 9/11 weakened over time.
Sources reviewed: 2026-10-26
References
- Mueller, J. E. (1970). Presidential popularity from Truman to Johnson. American Political Science Review, 64(1), 18–34. The study that introduced the rally effect.
- Brody, R. A. (1991). Assessing the president: The media, elite opinion, and public support. Stanford University Press. Book presenting the opinion-leadership account.
- Baker, W. D., & Oneal, J. R. (2001). Patriotism or opinion leadership? The nature and origins of the "rally 'round the flag" effect. Journal of Conflict Resolution, 45(5), 661–687. Tests patriotism vs. opinion leadership.
- Baum, M. A. (2002). The constituent foundations of the rally-round-the-flag phenomenon. International Studies Quarterly, 46(2), 263–298. Which constituencies rally.
- Schubert, J. N., Stewart, P. A., & Curran, M. A. (2002). A defining presidential moment: 9/11 and the rally effect. Political Psychology, 23(3), 559–583. Analysis of the 9/11 rally.
- Hetherington, M. J., & Nelson, M. (2003). Anatomy of a rally effect: George W. Bush and the war on terrorism. PS: Political Science & Politics, 36(1), 37–42. Size and decay of the post-9/11 rally.
- Groeling, T., & Baum, M. A. (2008). Crossing the water's edge: Elite rhetoric, media coverage, and the rally-round-the-flag phenomenon. The Journal of Politics, 70(4), 1065–1085. Elite rhetoric and media shape rallies.
- Lambert, A. J., Schott, J. P., & Scherer, L. (2011). Threat, politics, and attitudes: Toward a greater understanding of rally-'round-the-flag effects. Current Directions in Psychological Science, 20(6), 343–348. Psychological mechanisms: threat and anger.