Uncertainty and group identification
Hogg (2007) argued that people feel discomfort when unsure about themselves and that the motive to reduce this uncertainty is an important cause of group identification. According to self-categorization theory, categorizing oneself as a group member means the group prototype prescribes how to think and act, making oneself and the world more predictable. Mullin and Hogg (1998) showed experimentally that even in minimal groups formed on meaningless criteria, group identification and ingroup favoritism grow stronger when participants are uncertain.
Which groups attract
Not all groups reduce uncertainty equally. Hogg and colleagues (2007) showed that uncertain people identify more strongly with highly entitative groups, whose members are similar, whose boundaries are clear and which feel like a single unit. Grant and Hogg (2012) found that uncertainty effects are stronger when the group identity is prominent in the mind. Together with optimal distinctiveness theory, which stresses the balance of belonging and distinctiveness, it serves as a motivational account of why people choose particular groups.
Extremism, leadership and critiques
Hogg, Meehan and Farquharson (2010) showed that under threat and uncertainty, people identify more with groups that endorse radical action. Hogg and Adelman (2013) argued that in uncertain times, such as economic crises or rapid social change, support for extreme groups, conspiratorial movements and authoritarian leaders can grow. Hogg (2014) summarized this as a path from uncertainty to extremism. Critics note that results depend on how uncertainty is manipulated and measured, and that it is hard to separate uncertainty from other motives such as self-esteem or the search for meaning.
FAQ
- What is uncertainty-identity theory in simple terms?
- When people are unsure who they are or what to do, they lean on groups that give answers, and the more anxious they are, the more they are drawn to clear and strong groups.
- Why do extreme groups grow in uncertain times?
- Extreme groups have clear boundaries and spell out rules and identity, offering strong certainty to people who feel very uncertain.
Sources reviewed: 2026-10-26
References
- Mullin, B.-A., & Hogg, M. A. (1998). Dimensions of subjective uncertainty in social identification and minimal intergroup discrimination. British Journal of Social Psychology, 37(3), 345–365. Early experiments linking uncertainty to identification and discrimination.
- Hogg, M. A. (2007). Uncertainty-identity theory. Advances in Experimental Social Psychology, 39, 69–126. The definitive statement of uncertainty-identity theory.
- Hogg, M. A., Sherman, D. K., Dierselhuis, J., Maitner, A. T., & Moffitt, G. (2007). Uncertainty, entitativity, and group identification. Journal of Experimental Social Psychology, 43(1), 135–142. Shows uncertain people prefer highly entitative groups.
- Hogg, M. A., Meehan, C., & Farquharson, J. (2010). The solace of radicalism: Self-uncertainty and group identification in the face of threat. Journal of Experimental Social Psychology, 46(6), 1061–1066. Links self-uncertainty to identification with radical groups.
- Grant, F., & Hogg, M. A. (2012). Self-uncertainty, social identity prominence and group identification. Journal of Experimental Social Psychology, 48(2), 538–542. Shows uncertainty effects depend on identity prominence.
- Hogg, M. A., & Adelman, J. (2013). Uncertainty-identity theory: Extreme groups, radical behavior, and authoritarian leadership. Journal of Social Issues, 69(3), 436–454. Extends the theory to extreme groups and authoritarian leadership.
- Hogg, M. A. (2014). From uncertainty to extremism: Social categorization and identity processes. Current Directions in Psychological Science, 23(5), 338–342. A short overview from uncertainty to extremism.