Conditions and formula
A trial with only two outcomes is a Bernoulli trial. If (1) the number of trials n is fixed, (2) trials are independent and (3) the success probability p is constant, the number of successes X follows B(n, p).
P(X=k) = C(n,k) · pk · (1-p)n-k, for k = 0, 1, …, n
Mean, variance and an example
- Mean np, variance np(1-p), standard deviation √(np(1-p)).
- Example: if a surgery succeeds 80% of the time, the probability that exactly 10 of 15 patients succeed is C(15,10)·0.810·0.25 ≈ 0.103; the expected number is 12.
Approximations and uses
When n is large and both np and n(1-p) are at least about 5 to 10, the normal distribution N(np, np(1-p)) approximates it. When n is large and p small, the Poisson distribution with λ = np does. It is used for defect counts in quality control, poll proportions, treatment success counts and tests of proportions.
References
- Ross, S. M. (2019). A First Course in Probability (10th ed.). Pearson.
- Hogg, R. V., Tanis, E. A., & Zimmerman, D. L. (2019). Probability and Statistical Inference (10th ed.). Pearson.
- Montgomery, D. C., & Runger, G. C. (2018). Applied Statistics and Probability for Engineers (7th ed.). Wiley.