Basic structure
In expectancy-disconfirmation theory, satisfaction is explained by three elements.
- Expectations: the performance anticipated before purchase, shaped by advertising, word of mouth and past experience.
- Perceived performance: the performance actually experienced in use.
- Disconfirmation: the gap between performance and expectations; positive when performance is higher, simple confirmation when equal, negative when lower.
Oliver (1980) proposed a cognitive model in which expectations and disconfirmation jointly drive satisfaction, which in turn shapes attitudes and repurchase intention.
The expectation paradox
Raising expectations boosts purchase but also raises the risk of negative disconfirmation, so firms avoid overclaiming and may 'under-promise and over-deliver'.
Assimilation and contrast
- Assimilation: when the gap is small, customers shift their perception toward their expectations and barely notice it, a link to cognitive dissonance theory.
- Contrast: when the gap is large, customers exaggerate it.
Evidence and extensions
Churchill and Surprenant (1982) found that for a durable good (a videodisc player) perceived performance alone largely determined satisfaction, showing that the roles of expectations and performance differ by product type. Later models added equity, emotion and attribution (Oliver, 1997).
Uses and limits
The theory underpins satisfaction surveys, service recovery design and expectation management. It explains less when expectations are vague, change after purchase, or barely exist for novel products. In services it leads to SERVQUAL, which measures quality as the gap between expectations and perceptions. For the whole buying process, see consumer decision-making.
References
- Oliver, R. L. (1980). A cognitive model of the antecedents and consequences of satisfaction decisions. Journal of Marketing Research, 17(4), 460–469.
- Churchill, G. A., Jr., & Surprenant, C. (1982). An investigation into the determinants of customer satisfaction. Journal of Marketing Research, 19(4), 491–504.
- Oliver, R. L. (1997). Satisfaction: A Behavioral Perspective on the Consumer. New York: McGraw-Hill.